‘A Critical Scenario’: Conflict on Iran Squeezes India's LPG Stock.
The ripple effects of a military engagement being fought nearly 1,864 miles away are now impacting India's kitchens.
As military actions on Iran impede energy shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, supplies of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) are shrinking across India, pushing restaurants to reduce offerings, reduce operating times and in some cases close completely.
Social media is awash with video clips showing crowds outside cooking-gas dealers across Indian cities and towns as concerns over fuel supplies grow. Businesses appear the worst hit: the sharpest squeeze is in commercial eateries.
"The state of affairs is alarming. Cooking gas simply cannot be found," says a representative of the National Restaurant Association of India.
Most eateries run either on industrial fuel canisters or pipeline-supplied fuel, and the shortages are now being experienced across the country. "Numerous restaurants have closed - some in Delhi, many in the southern region. People are switching to traditional burners and electronic appliances to keep kitchens going."
City-Specific Fallout
In a western metro, local news say up to a fifth of hospitality businesses are already operating at reduced capacity as cylinder availability dwindle. In the southern cities of Bangalore and Madras, some restaurants say their gas stocks have depleted with scarce alternatives. "Coffee is the sole item we can prepare and nothing else - it is nothing less than pathetic. Businesses are going to suffer," says a business operator in Bengaluru.
Restaurant owners are scrambling to adapt. "Offering lists are shrinking, some are opening only for dinner and operating solely in the evening," an industry representative says, adding that shutdowns are changing as supplies come and go. "Several establishments in Delhi were shut yesterday - two have already reopened. It's a changing landscape."
Retailers report a increase in sales of induction stoves, with some saying they are selling out quickly.
Official Position
Yet, the officials states there is no shortage.
India has more than 300 million domestic LPG users and officials say supplies are being reallocated to households as geopolitical strain from the Middle East conflict ripple through energy markets.
About a majority of India's LPG is brought in from overseas, and about nine out of ten of those consignments pass through the key maritime route, the strategic bottleneck now largely blocked by the war.
The oil ministry says that it ordered refineries to maximise LPG output for home needs, raising domestic production by about 25%. Commercial stock is being reserved for essential sectors such as hospitals and educational institutions, while distribution will be "just and open".
"Some panic booking and hoarding has been triggered by rumors. The normal delivery cycle for home fuel remains about two-and-a-half days," says a senior official.
Widening Concern
Now the worry is spreading beyond kitchens. On social media, a widely shared video from Chennai shows a lengthy, winding line of two-wheelers outside a fuel station. "The panic is real," the text reads.
According to reports from energy specialists, concerns about India's broader fuel supplies may be exaggerated.
India imports the overwhelming majority of its petroleum. Around half of its oil purchases - about millions of barrels a day - travel through the strait, largely from Middle Eastern nations.
Even if oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz are disrupted, the shortfall could be partly offset by higher imports of competitively priced oil from Russia, according to a industry commentator.
Based on shipping data and credible market sources, incremental Russian crude imports could reach around a significant volume of barrels a day, lessening India's effective shortfall from exposure to the Strait of Hormuz to about 1.6 million barrels a day.
"Tens of millions of Russian oil barrels are currently on the water in the Indian Ocean and, with only two major Asian economies as major buyers, those barrels remain a ready fallback," an analyst noted.
LPG: The Real Vulnerability
The primary concern is cooking gas, analysts say.
India consumes roughly one million barrels a day, but produces only a minority share domestically, importing the rest - most of it through the chokepoint.
Refineries can tweak operations to squeeze out a bit more LPG, but even a 10-20% boost would only raise domestic supply to about 47-50% of demand, leaving the country significantly leaning on imports.
In short: "Oil import vulnerability can be moderately reduced through diversification. Fuel availability remains largely sufficient. Cooking gas supply is the critical issue to track in the coming weeks."
What may be heightening the panic on the ground is not just tight supply but patchy deliveries - and the common threat of stockpiling.
An industry representative states exploitative practices.
"Suppliers are misusing the situation - illegally trading canisters and selling them at a premium. In one small town, I heard of cylinders being hoarded and auctioned off."
For now, India's oil supplies may be protected by global trade flows. But in homes across the country, the more urgent issue is simple: how to get the next cylinder.
