A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that divided the nation and triggered disorder, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the political, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are resistant to losing and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but very few government figures or advocates are willing to participate with even the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer endorses unity or the status quo. They composes two pieces that seek objectivity in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates cover national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," said O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the concept that there may exist valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters say they support unity but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his era is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a feckless official who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate points, he commented. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will eventually be defeated but each side has got valuable insights to learn from the other's arguments."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to join the discussion, said the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
