Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action
The succession of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: positive announcements are delivered from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is expended on containing particular approaches. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "resolution".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from across the border, a ability provided through current data. From observation points, military aircraft that had been scrambled to intercept incoming guided weapons streaked across the sky – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by NATO members.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: multiple launches fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably provided by allied countries. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly transforms into grim resignation: perhaps the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a drone in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – almost certainly imported technology. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: seven people killed, devastation and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a reliance that regional partners are demonstrably unable to replace in the short term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The detailed framework from American leadership generated strong feelings, controversy and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from US leadership follows the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, undoubtedly, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership functions according to a premise understood by international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration presumes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from believing that the current condition will not change more in its benefit in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing civilians and areas but avoiding a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its benefit.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not move to internal issues. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are driving the talks.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a only one week to eliminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require continued Western support.
